“Among the most consequential unknowns of the devastating COVID-19 pandemic are the durability of immunity and time to likely reinfection. There are limited direct data on SARS-CoV-2 long-term immune responses and reinfection.”

According to a recent study published in The Lancet Microbe magazine:

  • a person who has not been vaccinated against COVID-19 should expect to be re-infected with the virus every 16 to 17 months.

“The aim of this study is to use data on the durability of immunity among evolutionarily close coronavirus relatives of SARS-CoV-2 to estimate times to reinfection by a comparative evolutionary analysis of related viruses…”

The resulting conclusions are therefore:

  • those people who are naturally infected with COVID-19 should still obtain the vaccination, as previous infections only provide short-term protection against subsequent infections.

The risk of a COVID-19 re-infection is about 5% after 3 months, but increases to 50% after 17 months.

We should also take into consideration that with new variants, any previous immune response in fighting the virus becomes less and less effective.

Stay safe and healthy!